speak softly and carry a big stick

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_stick_ideology 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Tr-bigstick-cartoon.JPG

attribution: William Allen Rogers, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

• Ukraine
• Gaza
• India
• Pakistan
• Afghanistan
• Iraq
• Kuwait
• Vietnam
• Korea
• etc.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/mel_dj/41943798462

attribution: George Santayana quotes and flickr

public domain

trash

  On Thursday, July 3 the town put out a message that trash might be collected on the normal day (Friday). ... maybe on Saturday? We, along with the rest of our neighbors put our trash out on Thursday evening.

WM didn't collect the trash on Friday or Saturday.

https://www.strasburgva.com/administration/page/trash-pickup-schedule 

It's now Monday afternoon. Trash for our entire neighborhood hasn't been picked up. After four days in the heat, it stinks. The town put out the following:

𝗧𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟭𝟰

Waste Management has notified us that they are unable to service Strasburg today due to ongoing staffing issues.

The plan moving forward is as follows:

Friday’s missed route from last week will not be collected until this coming Friday (7/18).

This is an OUTRAGE!!!

How stupid does WM and the town think that we are? WM is a BIG company that sponsors a yearly PGA golf tournament, donates large sums to charities, and pays for expensive advertisements on TV that claim that they're the greatest. Yet they can't meet their contractual requirement to collect the trash EVERY week because of "STAFFING ISSUES"? WM and the town must think that their customers are stupid.

WM and the town owe EACH and EVERY person in the neighborhood an apology and a rebate for their abysmally poor performance and breach of contract.

One thing that WM, Strasburg, and Shenandoah County have in common--they can't get their act together.

https://flickr.com/photos/dreamsjung/3595425744

attribution: Jason Taellious and flickr

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/deed.en

an act of God?

Yesterday a reporter referred to the cause of the tragic deaths in the Guadalupe River flood in Texas as an "act of God". 

Is it? 

"an act of God is an extraordinary interruption by a natural cause (such as a flood or earthquake) of the usual course of events that experience, prescience, or care cannot reasonably foresee or prevent."

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/act%20of%20God 

Did God cause the flood? or were the deaths caused by the actions or inaction of human beings?

The facts are:

1. Global climate change affects local weather. https://climate.nasa.gov/
2. The US Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulic Engineering Center developed its River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) computer modelling program in 1964. It was released to the public in 1995. Flood limits can be determined for any location. All that is needed are topographic and soils maps and a rainfall rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HEC-RAS 
3. it's widely known that the Guadalupe River floods the area where the camps are located. Warning sirens were discussed. Nothing was done.
4. If the Guadalupe River is modeled using the HEC-RAS program with the actual rainfall rate that occurred during the storm, then it would show flood depths and spread that match the actual depths and spread that occurred during the storm.
5. There was no warning system other than "word of mouth", which is useless in a situation like the Kerrville flood. An effective alert system would have saved lives.

https://apnews.com/article/texas-floods-camp-warning-system-not-funded-0845df62390b9623331ba4a030c5fc7d

So, it appears that the tragedy in Kerrville TX was created by the actions and/or inaction of human beings. It's a wake-up call for everyone.

My recommendations: 

1. instead of using 100-year or 500-year rainfall rates, use rainfall rates that are equal to the maximum recorded rainfall event--plus 10%. It's been reported that the rainfall rate that caused the flooding in Kerrville was 12 inches per hour. Adding 10% results in a rainfall rate of 13.2 inches per hour. 
2. keep an eye on the effects of global climate change on local weather. Intense storms with larger rainfall rates are occurring more frequently.
3. update the rainfall rate if the existing recorded maximum rainfall rate is exceeded. HEC-RAS will generate new flood depths and spreads.
4. don't build or rebuild in a flood plain.
5. post signs, install sirens and use early warning systems to advise people of danger in floodplains.

And, don't blame God for disasters that human actions or inaction cause.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hydraulics-3Dview.jpg#file

attribution: rainier5 and wikipedia

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

Kerrville, Texas will forever be known for the Guadalupe River flood that killed hundreds on July 4, 2025. People from everywhere will come to Kerrville, Texas to see for themselves where the tragedy and recovery took place. 

Suitable monuments and/or a museum should be built that tell the stories of those who died during the flood and the stories of their families. They should honor those volunteers who came from everywhere to help the people of Kerrville recover from the devastation. 

The story of the Kerrville flood should include a chapter on the mistakes that were made by government officials during and before the July 4 flood. Part of the legacy of the Kerrville flood is that those mistakes should never again be repeated anywhere in the USA.